Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Adoption and Revenue Mechanics (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL's value is intrinsically tied to the adoption of its stablecoin, USD0. The protocol generates revenue primarily from yield on the U.S. Treasury Bills backing USD0. A core mechanism directs 70% of this revenue to buy back and burn USUAL tokens, while 30% is distributed weekly to users who lock USUAL (USUALx). This creates a direct, deflationary link: as Total Value Locked (TVL) and revenue grow, buyback demand for USUAL increases.

What this means: This model is structurally bullish for USUAL's price if adoption accelerates. Increased USD0 usage translates to higher protocol revenue and larger, sustained buybacks, reducing circulating supply and supporting price appreciation. The recent completion of the USUALx unlock phase (Usual) removes a source of sell pressure, allowing this mechanism to work more effectively.

2. Market Competition and Regulatory Landscape (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Usual operates in the highly concentrated stablecoin market, dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). It also faces competition from other yield-bearing and RWA-backed stablecoins. Furthermore, regulatory developments, such as the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, are shaping the rules for stablecoin issuance and interest payments, which could impact Usual's operational model.

What this means: Intense competition presents a significant headwind. For USUAL's price to rise substantially, USD0 must capture meaningful market share from established incumbents, which is a formidable challenge. Restrictive regulations, particularly those limiting yield payments, could directly undermine a key value proposition of the protocol, potentially stifling demand for both USD0 and the USUAL token.

3. Security Vulnerabilities and DeFi Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: DeFi protocols are prime targets for exploits. Usual has faced hacking attempts, including a flash loan attack in May 2025 that was halted by security firm BlockSec (CoinMarketCap). The broader ecosystem is also vulnerable, as seen in the March 2026 $25M Resolv protocol exploit, which involved a similar yield-bearing stablecoin design (The Defiant).

What this means: A successful major exploit would likely cause a severe loss of user funds and confidence, leading to a sharp decline in TVL and a collapse in USUAL's price. Even without a direct hack, contagion from failures in similar protocols can spur negative sentiment and capital flight from the entire sector, posing a persistent downside risk.

Conclusion

USUAL's future price is a tug-of-war between its innovative, self-reinforcing economic model and the substantial market, regulatory, and security risks it faces. For a holder, the key is monitoring whether real-world adoption and revenue growth can outpace these systemic challenges.

Will rising Treasury yields and successful integrations like its Euro rail drive sufficient TVL growth to activate powerful buybacks?