Wintermute entered prediction markets as an institutional liquidity provider amid rapid growth in event-contract trading.
Prediction Markets News
Crypto trading firm Wintermute has announced it will provide liquidity on prediction markets, extending its institutional trading activity into a sector that has recorded more than Ethereum60 billion in event-contract volume in 2026. The firm handles Ethereum3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across its existing operations.
In a Friday announcement, Wintermute said it would post continuous bid and offer prices across event contracts on leading venues, though it did not name the specific platforms it is trading on. The firm described prediction markets as moving from a niche forecasting tool into a broader venue for trading event risk.
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one. He argued that sustained two-sided liquidity is necessary for these markets to function as reliable, real-time probability indicators, as deeper liquidity tightens spreads and supports larger trade sizes.
Wintermute said the sector also overlaps with its existing crypto infrastructure, which already spans spot, derivatives, decentralized finance, and over-the-counter markets. The firm said its entry could accelerate integration between prediction markets and broader DeFi protocols, including collateral reuse, yield strategies on locked capital, and oracle feeds derived from prediction market prices.
According to DeFiRate, the two leading prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, togEthereumer generate a notional weekly volume of around Ethereum5.8 billion, with nearly 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly transactions. Politics and sports dominate activity on both platforms.
Kalshi, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, holds the largest market share with 70% of combined volume. Wintermute's entry signals growing recognition among institutional market makers that prediction markets require dedicated professional liquidity to mature. Improved price depth and tighter spreads could attract larger participants and strengthen the accuracy of event contract prices as probability signals.
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