S&P's baseline projection anticipates €570 billion by 2030, equivalent to 2.2% of total eurozone bank deposits.
Stablecoin News
European stablecoin issuance could undergo explosive growth according to projections released Tuesday by S&P Global Ratings. The agency forecasts euro-denominated stablecoins scaling from €650 million at 2025 year-end to as much as €1.1 trillion by decade's end, representing a potential 1,600-fold increase.
The upper-bound scenario would position euro stablecoins at 4.2% of eurozone banks' overnight deposits. S&P's baseline projection anticipates €570 billion by 2030, equivalent to 2.2% of total eurozone bank deposits. This central forecast allocates €500 billion in demand to tokenized investment applications and approximately €100 billion to tokenized payment infrastructure.
Euro-pegged stablecoins stand ready for institutional adoption according to S&P, with demand potentially following from technological advances in blockchain scalability and growing tokenization of traditional assets. Interoperability improvements with emerging payment systems could further accelerate uptake. The report acknowledges substantial uncertainty, noting that slight variations in forecast parameters produce widely divergent outcomes.
A stark gap exists between European and U.S. markets currently. USD-denominated stablecoins held combined value of $310 billion at 2025 year-end. S&P estimates tokenized real-world assets in the U.S. could reach 1.2% of total RWAs by 2030, a metric the agency applied to the €28 trillion eurozone RWA market when formulating baseline projections. Real-world applications beyond crypto trading support the aggressive growth multiple, according to S&P analysts.
Banking institutions and affiliated entities will likely dominate 2026 market entry. Eleven European banks spanning nine countries plan joint euro stablecoin issuance in the second half of 2026 through Netherlands-based Qivalis. The entity is pursuing electronic money institution licensing in the first half of 2026, with the consortium's network reaching approximately 150 million clients and providing significant distribution infrastructure.
Ten global systemically important banks announced G7-currency stablecoin plans in October 2025 for public blockchain deployment, though specific timing and jurisdictions remain undefined. Japan's three megabanks separately plan yen-denominated stablecoins for wholesale corporate payments with explicit support from Japan's Financial Services Agency. The developments signal broadening institutional participation in cryptocurrency infrastructure.
S&P Global Ratings credits the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation as the primary catalyst enabling institutional entry. MiCA became effective for stablecoins on Jan. 1, 2025, establishing comprehensive rules for reserve asset eligibility, segregation, and redemption alongside standardized disclosure and prudential requirements. The framework stands out for thoroughness according to the report.
Critical technical specifications remain under European Banking Authority finalization despite the framework's operational status. Outstanding items include precise reserve asset composition, minimum maturity requirements, and concentration limits for credit institution deposits. Policymakers continue to define technical standards for issuer capital requirements, recovery planning, and stress-testing methodologies. The European Commission scheduled full MiCA review for completion in June 2027.
Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins already operate in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates. U.S., U.K. and South Korean frameworks remain in development or refinement stages. The GENIUS Act became U.S. law in July 2025, establishing a federal legal foundation for stablecoin issuance and providing regulatory clarity for American market participants.
Institutional forecasts vary considerably across firms. Citi analysts project the global stablecoin market will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030 in their base case, with bullish scenarios extending to $4 trillion. Standard Chartered estimates growth to $2 trillion by 2028. JPMorgan analysts maintain conservative projections of $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028, citing competitive pressure from tokenized bank deposits and central bank digital currencies as limiting factors for stablecoin market expansion.
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