Robinhood’s prediction market business is gaining momentum as FIFA World Cup trading volumes hit record highs, with analysts forecasting $586 million in 2026 revenue.
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Robinhood's prediction market business is drawing fresh attention from Wall Street as FIFA World Cup trading pushes volumes to record highs. Bernstein analysts said the platform could see "strong tailwinds" from the tournament in a note to clients on June 15.
Daily prediction market turnover climbed from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12. The June 12 spike coincided with the US versus Paraguay match. That single-day figure already surpasses the $1.4 billion recorded during last season's Super Bowl, according to Bernstein.
Robinhood's Fastest-Growing Revenue Line
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said prediction markets have become Robinhood's fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch. Bernstein projects the segment's revenue will climb from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. That would represent a 286% year-over-year increase.
The $586 million projection would account for roughly 17% of Robinhood's transaction-based revenues in 2026. It would also represent approximately 10% of the company's total revenue for the year. Bernstein expects the segment to be the largest incremental driver of transaction-based revenue growth in 2026.
The firm identified Robinhood's partnership with Rothera as a key differentiator. Rothera is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. It launched on May 28 and traded approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts making up nearly all of that volume.
Bernstein also pointed to pricing as a competitive advantage for Robinhood. The platform charges $0.01 commission per contract. Gold subscribers receive up to a 50% fee reduction. Robinhood shares traded at $93.19 on the Nasdaq as of Friday's close.
Competitors Push Into New Market Types
The broader prediction market sector is also expanding. Polymarket has introduced private-company event contracts, adding a new category of tradable outcomes. Kalshi launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies, recording $1 billion in volume within the first week of trading.
Bernstein said the growth in contract types and venues is driving higher engagement across the sector during the World Cup period. The firm also named DraftKings and Coinbase as publicly traded companies positioned to benefit from tournament volumes. Bernstein estimates the World Cup will generate more than $3 billion in incremental handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in consumer volume uplift across prediction markets.
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