Prediction markets drew another Wall Street endorsement this week, even as legal observers weighed whether the industry’s U.S. court fights could reach the Supreme Court.
Prediction markets drew another Wall Street endorsement this week, even as legal observers weighed whether the industry’s U.S. court fights could reach the Supreme Court.
Bernstein analysts projected the sector could grow into a $1 trillion annual market by 2030 as event contracts continue to spread across sports, politics, crypto, business, and other categories.
At the same time, Kalshi’s legal fight in Nevada moved to a federal appeals court, raising the prospect that the industry’s U.S. legal status could eventually be in the hands of the Supreme Court.
Even as regulatory uncertainty mounted, prediction platforms kept expanding this week while also tightening controls around insider trading and underage access.
Bernstein Sees $1 Trillion Growth Path
Bernstein projects prediction markets will become a $1 trillion industry. Source: CoinMarketCap
Prediction markets could grow from roughly $51 billion in annual volume in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein analysts said this week, arguing that regulatory clarity and wider mainstream distribution are setting up the sector’s next phase of expansion.
In a note led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts said volumes tripled last year as liquidity rotated from the 2024 U.S. election cycle into sports, crypto, macro, and political contracts. They said that the shift could continue as prediction markets evolve beyond election trading and into broader information markets.
Sports contracts still account for most activity, with Bernstein estimating they currently comprise 62% of volume, buoyed by the fragmented state-by-state structure of traditional online sports betting. But the firm said that reliance should fade over time as other event contract categories gain ground.
Bernstein also identified distribution as a key growth driver, citing Robinhood and Coinbase as important access points. It said Robinhood’s Kalshi-powered hub reached about $350 million in annual recurring revenue within a year of launch.
Supreme Court Fight May Be Taking Shape
Coinbase’s CLO expects event contracts’ legal fight to reach the Supreme Court. Source: X/Paul Grewal
The legal battle over who gets to regulate prediction markets moved closer to a possible Supreme Court test this week after a federal appeals court heard arguments in Kalshi’s fight with Nevada.
At issue is whether Kalshi’s event contracts should be treated as swaps overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or as gambling products that require state licenses. Nevada says the company cannot offer some contracts without a gaming license, while Kalshi argues federal law gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction.
In an April 16 X post, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said he expects the U.S. Supreme Court to ultimately decide whether sports event contracts on regulated exchanges fall under the CFTC’s exclusive authority.
Industry Accelerates, Cautiously
Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly added new safeguards this week. Source: Kalshi
Crypto.com added to the sector’s expansion push this week, signing a deal with online casino company High Roller Technologies to launch event-based prediction contracts for U.S. users through its CFTC-registered exchange.
At the same time, platforms are adding controls to limit potential regulatory blowback.
On April 14, The Information reported that Polymarket has launched an audit of copy-trading startups built around its platform after some apps began helping users track wallets suspected of trading on nonpublic information.
Kalshi is also tightening age checks after reports that some minors bypassed its rules by using a parent’s ID.
On April 15, Semafor reported that the company plans a new parent portal and selfie-based verification tools as prediction platforms face broader scrutiny over compliance and access controls.
By the Numbers
What price will Bitcoin hit in April?
- $80,000: 54.5%
- $85,000: 14.75%
- $65,000: 8.5%
- $90,000: 4.6%
Source: CoinMarketCap
What price will Ethereum hit in April?
- $2,600: 54.5%
- $2,800: 21.5%
- $2,000: 10.6%
- $3,000: 7.85%
Source: CoinMarketCap
What price will Solana hit in April?
- $100: 35%
- $110: 9.05%
- $70: 7.5%
- $120: 3.2%
Source: CoinMarketCap
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