CryptoQuant says Bitcoin's most likely bear market bottom sits near $53,600 as demand weakens, ETF outflows accelerate, and key capitulation signals remain absent.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to roughly $59,000 on June 6, its lowest level in this bear market cycle. The asset recovered to around $62,150 by June 10, according to CoinMarketCap data. Despite the rebound, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said a confirmed cycle bottom has not yet formed.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno published a report on June 10 identifying $53,600 as the most likely floor for this cycle. That figure is BTC's current realized price, the aggregate cost basis across all market participants on record. Moreno said BTC has bottomed at or just below this level in every previous major bear cycle.
Source: CoinMarketCap
In November 2022, the collapse of FTX briefly pushed BTC below the realized price before the market recovered. Moreno said the current $62,150 price sits approximately 9% above the $53,600 level. "Historically, it's a level that would confirm a bottom. It doesn't mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with Bitcoin's demand weakness," he said.
Demand Turns Sharply Negative
CryptoQuant described current Bitcoin demand conditions as "deeply unfavorable." Total BTC demand, which combines speculative perpetual futures activity with apparent spot demand, fell by 652,000 BTC in the most recent week measured. That was the largest single-week contraction since January 2022.
Both futures and spot demand weakened sharply when BTC fell below $60,000. The move triggered long liquidations and accelerated spot selling simultaneously. CryptoQuant's one-year apparent demand growth has since turned negative and is declining below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024.
The firm said this trend means there are fewer BTC buyers now than there were a year ago. Moreno wrote that this removes the demand foundation needed for any price recovery to hold. He added that a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery, and that condition is absent from current data.
ETF Outflows Reach a 2-Year Low
Institutional demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also deteriorated sharply. CryptoQuant's 30-day ETF demand growth fell to negative 74,000 BTC, the lowest reading since US spot Bitcoin ETF products launched in January 2024.
Spot BTC ETFs recorded only one day of net inflows between May 14 and June 10. Total outflows during that period exceeded $4.8 billion, according to data from Farside Investors. CryptoQuant said ETFs are now expanding net supply rather than absorbing selling pressure.
No Capitulation Signal Yet
Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That is well below the 400,000 BTC recorded when BTC first broke below $60,000 in February 2026. It is also far below the 1.2 million BTC in losses seen during the FTX-driven bottom in November 2022.
Moreno said the low level of realized losses means a large share of holders remain above water and have not reached the threshold of panic selling. Major crypto cycle bottoms have historically followed periods of heavy selling and seller exhaustion. Neither condition is present in CryptoQuant's current data.
BTC has declined 6.6% over the past seven days and sits 51% below its all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinMarketCap data. Moreno said the $53,600 level should be treated as a valuation floor candidate until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach bear market capitulation-level peaks.
Related Article: Bitcoin Mirrors 2022 Bear Pattern, Says CryptoQuant
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.
