Grayscale Research estimates AAVE could reach $175 within a year, based on revenue growth, projected earnings and traditional valuation models.
Grayscale Research has applied traditional finance valuation methods to Aave to project the protocol's native AAVE (AAVE) token could reach $175 under a one-year base case scenario. The analysis relies on discounted cash flows, earnings multiples, and comparisons with banks and fintech companies.
Aave's Revenue Growth Underpins Price Projection
Grayscale set AAVE's current fair value between $80 and $100, based on a projected net income of about $60 million for 2026. The firm cited a more than 6x revenue growth between 2023 and 2025, alongside an estimated profit margin near 50%.
Grayscale pointed to three areas supporting that growth: Aave's core lending activity, its GHO (GHO) stablecoin, and a growing set of institutional products. The firm's use of equity-style valuation methods on the DeFi protocol reflects a broader trend among asset managers applying traditional financial frameworks to crypto assets that generate measurable revenue and earnings.
The report also noted limits to that comparison, however. Protocol revenue does not automatically translate into token value, since fees may go to liquidity providers, cover operating costs, or remain with a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) instead. Token holders generally lack the legally enforceable claims that equity shareholders hold in traditional companies, Grayscale said.
Related Article: Grayscale Says Bitcoin Needs Buyers Beyond Strategy
CoinShares Applies Similar Models to HYPE and Ethereum
CoinShares has taken a comparable approach with Hyperliquid's HYPE (HYPE) token and Ethereum (ETH), building long-term valuation frameworks around protocol fees, buyback mechanics, and other economic drivers.
CoinShares described Hyperliquid as a clearer case of token-level value accrual, noting that 99% of the protocol's fees fund buybacks of HYPE through its Assistance Fund. For Ethereum, the firm used a sum-of-the-parts model that combines projected cash flows with a larger premium tied to ETH's role as collateral and a monetary asset. CoinShares' 2031 base case values HYPE at $147 and ETH at $4,935, though it noted most of Ethereum's projected value comes from that monetary and collateral role rather than direct cash flows.
These valuation models come as some financial institutions forecast stronger growth for DeFi markets overall. Standard Chartered projects that tokenization could push total DeFi assets to $2.7 trillion by 2030, naming Uniswap as a protocol positioned to become a major venue for tokenized markets as partnerships with traditional finance firms expand.
Read more: Hyperliquid Is on a Tear, but Can the HYPE Price Rally Keep Going?
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