The estimate covers the full 104-match schedule under the expanded 48-team format, roughly 60% more bettable inventory than any previous edition of the tournament.
Prediction Market News
The 2026 FIFA World Cup opened June 11 across North American stadiums, and investment firm Bernstein projects the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume across prediction markets and sports betting platforms combined. The estimate covers the full 104-match schedule under the expanded 48-team format, roughly 60% more bettable inventory than any previous edition of the tournament.
Bernstein called the event a potential "watershed moment" for the sector, saying it could accelerate momentum from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and fuel long-term growth across the industry. The firm forecasts the overall prediction market space could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
DraftKings disclosed that its annualized consumer volume for May rose 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, while total volume traded climbed 34% to $3.1 billion, extending a three-month growth streak before the first match kicked off. The figures indicate demand was already building ahead of the tournament's opening.
Sports Emerge as Prediction Markets' Biggest Growth Driver
Bernstein described prediction markets as "a new sports engagement monetization layer" rather than a threat to traditional sportsbooks. The firm said Kalshi and Polymarket have scaled primarily in California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida, and the World Cup creates an opening for the rest of the industry to expand its customer base more broadly.
An April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that monthly predictionmarket trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of users. Sports contracts represented more than 39% of that total in March alone, according to data from Bitget Wallet and Polygon, making sports the largest segment by volume.
FIFA expects the tournament to attract roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. That expanded global audience gives platforms entering or scaling within the prediction market space a larger potential user acquisition window than any previous tournament offered.
Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) crossed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March, just months after launching the product through its partnership with Kalshi. The exchange offers World Cup contracts that let users in all 50 US states trade event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture, and other real-world outcomes.
Robinhood is using the tournament to commercially launch Rothera, its own US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets. Bernstein forecasts roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for Robinhood in 2026, calling prediction markets the biggest driver of incremental revenue for the brokerage. Robinhood SportsBetting
The CFTC issued draft rules on June 11 signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law classifies them as "gaming." The regulatory guidance gives prediction market operators clearer footing as they compete to capture volume from one of the most-watched sporting events in the world.
Related Article: CFTC Backs Sports Bets in Landmark Prediction Market Rule
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