They described the asset's recent strength as a rational response to instability in the global financial system.
Bitcoin News
Bitwise published a client note Tuesday arguing that Bitcoin is rising because of current geopolitical conditions, not in spite of them. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen authored the note together. They described the asset's recent strength as a rational response to instability in the global financial system.
Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on Feb. 28, Bitcoin has gained 12%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has fallen 1%, and gold has dropped 10%. The gap has challenged the widely held view that Bitcoin should decline during periods of geopolitical stress, as investors typically move toward safer assets.
Hougan and Rasmussen similarly reject that framing in the note. They wrote that Bitcoin's appeal rises precisely when trust in sovereign financial systems weakens. The pair titled their argument with the phrase "Chaos is a ladder," positioning Bitcoin as a direct beneficiary of monetary fragmentation rather than a casualty of it.
Bitwise lays out two separate value drivers for Bitcoin. The first is its established competition with gold for the role of global store of value. The second, which the firm says is underpriced by most investors, is Bitcoin's potential to function as a neutral settlement currency in international trade.
The analysts trace growing interest in that second role to the 2022 removal of a major economy from the SWIFT network. That event prompted some trade flows to reroute through alternative systems, and began gradually eroding dollar dominance at the margins. Bitwise says recent geopolitical tensions have sharpened that trend further.
Reports of Bitcoin being accepted for oil transit-related payments are cited as a concrete signal in the note. Bitwise acknowledges that regulatory restrictions remain in place and that blockchain transparency constrains illicit use at scale. The firm argues the directional shift matters more than current transaction volumes.
The analysts frame Bitcoin's currency use case as an out-of-the-money call option. They say that the option becomes more valuable when both the probability of adoption rises and global volatility increases. Bitwise argues that both conditions are now active at the same time.
If Bitcoin captures both store-of-value demand and a share of global transaction flows, Bitwise says current long-term price targets may be set too low. The firm now describes $1 million per coin as a potential baseline scenario rather than a ceiling. As of April 13, Bitcoin had reclaimed $74,000 amid continued military volatility in the Middle East and persistent U.S. inflation.
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