Fidelity says central banks are shifting away from dollar reserves toward Bitcoin and gold amid geopolitical tensions.
Fidelity Digital Assets said in its "Six Key Trends Shaping Digital Assets in 2026" report that nation-states and central banks are increasingly turning to assets outside the US-controlled financial system, pointing to gold's growing share in global reserves and Bitcoin’s (BTC) emerging role in cross-border trade settlements as evidence of a structural #dollarization shift.
The report noted that gold has overtaken US dollar assets in global central bank reserves, even after pulling back roughly 20% from a January all-time high of approximately $5,600 per ounce. Central bank demand for gold remained strong through that decline, which Fidelity said broadly aligned with its prior thesis on reserve diversification.
BTC has entered the picture through Iran's acceptance of the cryptocurrency for oil shipping tolls crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a development the report described as the emergence of "alternative settlement mechanisms." The move reflects BTC's properties of neutrality, resistance to confiscation, and decentralization, which supporters argue position it as a viable alternative to the US dollar in international trade.
Iran's government announced in April 2026 that it would accept oil shipping payments in BTC, US dollar-pegged stablecoins, and Chinese yuan. The decision followed a May 2025 proposal from Iran's Economy Ministry to build a maritime insurance framework for vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, with premiums payable in Bitcoin and settled on-chain, according to state-run Fars News Agency.
Later in April 2026, US authorities froze $344 million in stablecoins linked to Iran's government and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Despite that enforcement action demonstrating Washington's ability to freeze stablecoin holdings, Tether's USDt has continued to dominate oil shipping fee payments, according to Sam Lyman, head of research at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.
Fidelity's report acknowledged that BTC has not yet delivered the expected follow-on price outperformance relative to gold. "Gold's performance and continued central bank demand are broadly aligned with our initial thesis, while the anticipated follow-on outperformance from Bitcoin has yet to materialize," the report said.
The firm framed the broader pattern as a "shift away from dollar-based systems," driven by geopolitical pressures and a search for settlement infrastructure that operates outside any single government's jurisdiction.
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